Greenland’s Election and Trump’s Influence: A Shift in Political Priorities

Greenland’s Election and Trump’s Influence: A Shift in Political Priorities

Greenland is set to hold a general election on March 11, with independence initially at the heart of the campaign. However, the landscape has shifted significantly due to recent developments involving U.S. President Donald Trump.

"We don’t want to be Danes or Americans", Greenland’s Prime Minister Múte Egede recently stated in an interview with Fox News. He has been vocal about his aspirations for Greenland to achieve independence, with plans to eventually hold a referendum on the matter.

Despite this, the topic of independence has been overshadowed by Trump’s assertion that the United States must acquire Greenland at any cost. The American leader has been unequivocal in his stance, even refusing to dismiss the possibility of leveraging military or economic measures to achieve this objective.

This shift has transformed Greenland into a focal point of global debate, directly influencing the trajectory of the election.

Greenland’s Territorial Status

The name Greenland was coined by Viking explorer Erik the Red around the year 990. His aim was to make the land sound appealing to fellow Norsemen, encouraging them to settle there.

Since the mid-20th century, the United States has maintained a military presence on the island, operating an airbase in Thule, located in its northern region.

Presently, the vast island—comparable in size to Mexico but home to just 56,000 people—remains a territory of Denmark, with historical Viking ties that persist to this day.

The Modern Greenlandic Government

In 1953, Greenland was formally incorporated as a county of Denmark. This changed in 1979 when it was granted home rule, allowing it to establish its own legislature.

The island’s parliament, known as Inatsisartut, is based in Nuuk, Greenland’s capital. The term "Inatsisartut" translates to "those who make the laws" in the Greenlandic language. While the government enjoys autonomy over most domestic affairs, Denmark retains control over foreign relations and defense.

Discussions around independence only gained traction in the early 2000s. The issue became more prominent in 2008 when Denmark agreed to a framework for Greenland’s future self-determination.

A key aspect of this agreement was the gradual reduction of Denmark’s financial contributions—commonly referred to as the "block grant"—as revenue from resource extraction began to fund essential public services. The deal was approved through a referendum in 2008, which also granted Greenland the legal right to declare independence whenever it chooses.

Egede, the current Prime Minister, leads the left-wing Inuit Ataqatigiit party, which strongly supports independence. The centrist Naleraq party also shares this stance.

Together, these two parties control 16 out of the 31 seats in Greenland’s parliament. Although some members of other parties—such as the traditionally unionist Siumut party, which is part of the governing coalition—have signaled a shift toward supporting independence, making the actual number of pro-independence lawmakers potentially higher.

Opposition to independence primarily comes from the conservative Demokraatit party, along with the centre-left Siumut and centre-right Atasut parties. Among them, Demokraatit has seen the greatest recent surge in popularity, surpassing both Siumut and Atasut, which once dominated Greenland’s political landscape but have faced challenges in recent years.

The Possibility of a Referendum

Currently, the government is a coalition between Inuit Ataqatigiit and Siumut. While these parties have historically held differing views on independence, the outcome of the election could influence their stance. Notably, Siumut’s parliamentary leader, Doris J. Jensen, has cautiously expressed openness to severing ties with Denmark.

Should Inuit Ataqatigiit and Naleraq secure a majority in the election, the likelihood of a referendum being announced increases substantially.

Ordinarily, unilateral referendums on independence are deemed unconstitutional in many nations. For instance, when Catalonia held an independence referendum in 2017, the Spanish government declared it illegal and responded with a forceful crackdown.

However, Greenland operates under a different framework. In 2009, Denmark’s parliament enacted legislation explicitly granting Greenland the authority to hold an independence referendum whenever it sees fit.

The island is rich in valuable minerals such as copper, tungsten, and platinum—most of which remain beneath the ice. Many observers believe these resources are a key factor in Trump’s persistent interest in Greenland, known in the Inuit language as Kalaallit Nunaat (“the land of the people”).

Until Trump’s intervention, mineral wealth was not a dominant concern for most Greenlandic voters, who have been more focused on issues like social welfare and living costs. However, Trump’s stance has shifted the political discourse.

Trump Declares U.S. Intent to Take Control of Greenland ‘One Way or the Other’

The Election Landscape

The ruling coalition has seen a decline in support. Inuit Ataqatigiit’s projected vote share has fallen from 37% to 31%, while Siumut’s backing is expected to drop from 29% to 21%.

Meanwhile, opposition parties such as Demokraatit and Naleraq have gained traction. Demokraatit is set to double its share to 18%, edging ahead of Naleraq by 2%.

Despite these fluctuations, the overall level of support for independence remains unchanged.

Regardless of the election outcome, there is broad consensus among Greenland’s political parties on one crucial matter—none of them are interested in becoming part of the United States.

Though there is division on whether to end Greenland’s thousand-year association with Denmark, all parties align with the firm message Danish Prime Minister Mette Frederiksen conveyed to Trump: "Greenland is not for sale."

Danish Member of the European Parliament Anders Vistisen, representing the nationalist Dansk Folkeparti, expressed a blunter view. Addressing the European Parliament, he stated:

Let me put it into words you might understand. Mr Trump, fuck off.

While none of Greenland’s political factions advocate for American rule, they remain open to collaborating with the U.S. on defense matters. Similarly, interest in resource exploration exists across party lines, but there is no appetite in Greenland for aligning with Trump’s position.